Welcome to For Your Consideration, HuffPost Entertainment’s weekly breakdown of all things Oscar. Between now and Feb. 25, 2013, executive arts and entertainment editor Michael Hogan and entertainment editor Christopher Rosen will chat about awards season and which films will make the most noise at the 85th annual Academy Awards.
Rosen & Hogan: It’s all over but the shouting. On Thursday, the 2013 Oscar nominations will be announced by Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone. Finally! Ahead, some fearless forecasting of what to expect from the 85th annual Academy Award nominations.
Best Picture
Rosen’s Picks: “Argo,” “Django Unchained,” “Les Miserables,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Skyfall,” “Zero Dark Thirty”
Rosen’s Commentary: Pretty chalk here, with only “Skyfall” breaking through as a “surprise” (though with heavy support from the Producers Guild and that Javier Bardem Screen Actors Guild nomination, it will be far from shocking to see “Skyfall” on the list). I left off “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” even though both received PGA nods, if only because I think the Academy-wide support for both films may be a lot smaller than we assume.
Hogan’s Commentary: I’m still holding out hope for “Beasts,” in particular, and “Moonrise Kingdom.” I also think “Amour” could slip in. For some sexagenarians I know, it might as well be the only movie that came out this year. And are we really going to do this “Skyfall” thing? As someone whose father dragged him to it for a second time, I can report that this very, very long movie does not get better with repetition.
Hogan’s Wild Cards: “Amour,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Moonrise Kingdom”
Best Director
Rosen’s Picks: Ben Affleck (“Argo”), Kathryn Bigelow (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”), David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln”)
Rosen’s Commentary: Conventional wisdom says this category has seven names for five slots, but I think Tom Hooper’s dreams of an Oscar nomination are long gone. To me, it’s six names for five slots — with Affleck, Bigelow and Spielberg as natural locks and Russell on pretty solid ground. That leaves Lee versus Quentin Tarantino, and I think Lee has more support among directors than QT.
Hogan’s Commentary: “Django Unchained” is my favorite movie of the year, but I agree that QT will be left off the short list. I also think Hooper could easily outpace Russell, in spite of that old Harvey magic. Actors make up the largest voting bloc in the Academy, after all, and they’ve all been receiving messages from their inner 13-year-old theater geeks.
Hogan’s Wild Card: Tom Hooper (“Les Miserablés”)
Best Actor
Rosen’s Picks: Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), John Hawkes (“The Sessions”), Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”), Denzel Washington (“Flight”)
Rosen’s Commentary: Remember when we thought Joaquin Phoenix would win this award? LOLz, September versions of Chris and Mike!
Hogan’s Commentary: Don’t remind me! And YET — call me perverse but I still think Joaquin could eek out a nomination. If not in place of Cooper, then maybe Denzel? Am I crazy? Yes? OK, I’m crazy. I’m still putting the name down. Names I’m not putting down: Anthony Hopkins (“Hitchcock”), Bill Murray (“Hyde Park on Hudson”), Daniel Craig (“Skyfall”).
Hogan’s Wild Card: Joaquin Phoenix (“The Master”)
Best Actress
Rosen’s Picks: Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Marion Cotillard (“Rust and Bone”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Naomi Watts (“The Impossible”), Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”)
Rosen’s Commentary: Tough to get excited about a category when the potential upstarts are Rachel Weisz, Emmanuelle Riva and Helen Mirren. Give me Wallis as a surprise pick; this is a two-actress category (Chastain vs. Lawrence) that needs some juice.
Hogan’s Commentary: I’m glad to see you adding Wallis, who gave the most revelatory performance of the year by anyone, hands down. I’d like to think the legendary Emmanuelle Riva could stand in for Naomi Watts, but it’s probably wishful thinking.
Hogan’s Wild Card: Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”)
Best Supporting Actor
Rosen’s Picks: Alan Arkin (“Argo”), Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”), Samuel L. Jackson (“Django Unchained”), Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”)
Rosen’s Commentary: By far the most competitive category, but: Arkin, De Niro and Jones are definitely in, and Hoffman’s nomination is a fair bet as well. That leaves one open slot for the three “Django Unchained” co-stars (Jackson, Leonardo DiCaprio and Christoph Waltz), Javier Bardem, Matthew McConaughey, Eddie Redmayne, John Goodman, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So, basically, your guess is as good as mine. I’ll take Jackson, however, because not only is he great in “Django Unchained,” but this category often includes a veteran surprise. (See Max Von Sydow just last year.)
Hogan’s Commentary: I’m glad you’ve given up on your mad campaign on behalf of John Goodman, but I differ with you on one particular: To me, there’s no doubt that Christophe Waltz hustled “Django Unchained” into the trunk of his buggy and drove away with it. Too many old guys, though. Maybe a little Eddie Redmayne, just to mix things up?
Hogan’s Wild Cards: Eddie Redmayne (“Les Miserablés”), Christophe Waltz (“Django Unchained”).
Best Supporting Actress
Rosen’s Picks: Amy Adams (“The Master”), Sally Field (“Lincoln”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”), Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”), Nicole Kidman (“The Paperboy”)
Rosen’s Commentary: The first four names are set in stone, leaving Kidman to battle Samantha Barks and Ann Dowd for door No. 5. SAG nomination + Kidman’s willingness to be “brave” and go against type in “The Paperboy” (i.e., pee on Zac Efron) give her the edge.
Hogan’s Commentary: For once, we agree. And not a moment too soon! And now … the envelopes, puh-leeze!
EARLIER:
Week 1: Has Harvey Weinstein Already Taken Over Oscar Season?
Week 2: Will ‘Les Miserables’ Dream A Dream Of Oscar Gold?
Week 3: Will ‘Life Of Pi’ Roar At The Oscars?
Week 4: Will ‘Lincoln’ Reach Higher Office?
Week 5: Is ‘Argo’ The Clear Front-Runner?
Week 6: Should ‘The Hunger Games’ Get Nominated For Best Picture?
Week 7: Technical Difficulties Due To Hurricane Sandy
Week 8: Can Denzel Washington Win Best Actor?
Week 9: Can ‘Skyfall’ Crash The Academy Awards?
Week 10: Has ‘Lincoln’ Become The Front-Runner?
Week 11: Is ‘Zero Dark Thirty A Serious Contender?
Week 12: Reading The Critics Groups’ Tea Leaves
Week 13: Predicting The Golden Globes
Week 14: Which Smear Campaigns Could Actually Work?
Week 15: Will Torture Debate Hurt ‘Zero Dark Thirty’?
Week 16: Oscar E-Voting Causing Problems